Barring a red wave that no one is predicting, Republicans will once again find themselves in the minority in both chambers of the Nevada Legislature when it convenes in just over three months.

The question is whether the Democratic majority will simply be large enough to thwart Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo — as happened during the 2023 legislative session — or large enough to effectively bypass Lombardo and enact his own Democratic agenda.

All 42 Assembly seats and half of the 21 Senate seats are up for re-election this year.

Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has made blocking the Democratic majority a priority because if Democrats can win two-thirds of the seats in both the Assembly and Senate, they can override any of his gubernatorial vetoes, of which there have been dozens. .

Lombardo endorsed a slate of candidates early in the election cycle, and political action committees supporting him have funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars. in the most competitive races. “Protect the veto” was a rallying cry among many of these candidates.

For their part, Democrats have largely downplayed the supermajority issue, with candidates saying they are focused on “kitchen table issues” and emphasizing their commitment to working in a bipartisan manner.

Democrats currently have the minimum for a supermajority in the Assembly – 28 of 42 seats. They are one seat short in the Senate.

Nevada State Assembly

In the Assembly, Republicans could break their supermajority by successfully defending their existing 14 seats and losing one seat to Democrats.

The best opportunities to turn the district red may be the two open seats in Southern Nevada: the 29th Congressional District, where Democrat Joe Dahlia and Republican Annette Dawson Owens face off, and the 35th Congressional District, which features Republican Rebecca Edgeworth and Democrat Sharifa Wahab.

Several incumbent Democrats are also considered vulnerable, offering other ways for Republicans to increase their numbers in the House:

• Democratic Assemblywoman Elaine Marzola faces a challenge from Republican April Arndt in District 21.
• Democratic Assemblywoman Selena LaRue Hatch in District 25 faces a challenge from Republican Diana Sande.
• Democratic Assemblywoman Shea Backus of District 37 faces a challenge from Republican David Brogue.
• Democratic Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui faces a challenge from Republican Rafael Arroyo in District 41.

For their part, Democrats do not appear to have much wiggle room in widening their existing supermajority margin. One clear opportunity lies in the 4th Assembly District, where the open seat is currently represented by Republican Richard MacArthur, who decided to run for the state Senate but was defeated in the primary. This southern Nevada district faces Republican Lisa Cole and Democrat Ryan Hampton.

Democrats are also targeting ousting Republican Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama in the 2nd Congressional District. Democrat Ron Nelsen is challenging the incumbent in this race.

Nevada State Senate

Nevada State Senators are elected to staggered four-year terms. That means only 10 of the 21 seats are on the ballot this year.

Democrats could secure a supermajority in the House by retaining the six seats they currently control and giving away one of the four seats held by Republicans.

The districts with the greatest potential to move from red to blue are the 15th Senate District in Northern Nevada and the 5th Senate District in Southern Nevada. The boundaries of both districts have shifted significantly since they were last on the ballot.

SD15 is currently represented by Republican state Sen. Heidi Sievers O’Gara (formerly Sievers Gansert), who chose not to seek re-election. Democratic Representative Angie Taylor and Republican Mike Ginsberg are vying for her place.

SD5 features an incumbent, with Republican Sen. Carrie Buck being challenged by Democrat Jennifer Atlas.

Republicans also have a competitive candidate in the 11th Senate District, where Democratic state Sen. Dallas Harris is being challenged by Republican Laurie Rogich. The district, which covers part of the southwest Las Vegas Valley, leans Democratic but is not insurmountable, especially for a well-funded and politically connected candidate like Rogich.

Potentially complicating matters for Harris, she is part of a group of Democrats who lost support from the Culinary Union.

Cooking, often described as politically influential and a key Democratic organizer, expressed dissatisfaction with state lawmakers voting in favor of legislation that would end pandemic-era public health requirements imposed on the gaming industry. Senate Bill 441, passed by the 2023 legislative session, is sometimes referred to as the “housekeeping bill” because among its provisions was a requirement that resort rooms be cleaned daily.

Before the June primary, Culinary announced it would disapprove 18 Democratic legislators they supported in previous election cycles because of their votes on the cleaning bill. The group included Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro, Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager and state Sen. Rochelle Nguyen, who tried to oust during the county primary. (Nguyen still won, defeating Geo Hughes, a nurse and daughter of former culinary secretary-treasurer Geoconda Arguello-Klein.)

All 18 candidates outperformed their primaries in one way or another. As for the general, these candidates are again not supported by cooking. However, only in SD11 did Culinary support its competitor.

The Cooks have not yet revealed their legislative priorities for the 2025 session.