Keir Starmer thought he would have to spend his flight time to Samoa for the Commonwealth summit discussing repatriation and UK aid. Instead, the Prime Minister is trying to hush up a diplomatic spat with Donald Trump.

Trump’s team has gone on the offensive against Labor Party staffers flying to the US to campaign for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. This is a long tradition within the Labor Party, but it is viewed differently now that the party is in government. The Trump campaign has formally accused the Labor Party of violating US election laws through “clear foreign interference” in the presidential election. In the letter, Trump’s team warns that when “British government officials have previously attempted to go door-to-door in America, it has not ended well for them,” referring to the 243rd anniversary of the surrender of British forces at the Battle of Yorktown. .

Ministers this morning said there was nothing to see, with Defense Secretary John Healey suggesting the Trump campaign’s complaints about Labor were essentially an election stunt. This is what Freddie emphasizes in “Coffee House”: the suggestion of foreign elite participation could help Trump motivate his base to get out and vote. Responding to traveling Lobby journalists on the plane, Starmer tried to downplay the efforts of Labor Party volunteers, saying they had “checked virtually every election”.

When asked whether the scandal could sour his relationship with Trump if he becomes president, Starmer dismissed the idea:

No. I spent time in New York with President Trump, had dinner with him, and my goal was to make sure that the two of us had a good relationship, which we did, and we thank him for that. find time.

The prime minister went on to say that he “will work with whoever the American people return as their president in the elections that are now very close.”

This is all very good. But the question being asked in government is whether President Trump will work with Labor.

For more than a year, David Lammy and his team have been trying to establish ties with senior Republicans in anticipation of Trump’s return. This included meetings with J.D. Vance (long before he was chosen as Trump’s vice president) as well as figures such as Mike Pompeo. Starmer recently met with Trump in what was seen as a diplomatic coup and went smoothly. But part of the strategy is to make sure they have lines of communication with Trump’s team if the president proves unstable.

Obviously, Starmer would have an easier time if Harris had been elected. A Labor delegation attended this year’s Democratic National Convention, and the two teams shared campaign ideas and policy positions, such as immigration (Democrats highlight Labor’s “busting the gangs” language). There is no clear connection between conservatives and the Republican Party: some Tories support Democrats. On the other hand, there are no Labor Party representatives supporting the Republican Party.

Under a more traditional Republican leader, a Labor-Republican alliance would not pose much of a problem. The so-called special relationship and basic diplomacy are such that the two countries will work closely together, regardless of personalities. However, the risk remains that a Labor government is simply more undesirable to Trump than a Conservative government. Starmer is already at loggerheads with Elon Musk, a known Trump supporter. If a Labor government tries to rein in the online giants, both Musk and Trump could voice their objections.

It is well known that Lammy has previously attacked Trump and even led a protest against his state visit. In government, Lammy and Starmer changed their position. But if the couple rolled out the red carpet for President Trump, how would their supporters react? It’s easy to imagine a group of Labor MPs airing their grievances and Trump being offended. Will Starmer discipline them or allow them to riot? If Trump starts commenting on domestic and Labor politics, will Starmer simply remain silent? The precedent exists after Joe Biden took the unusual step of criticizing Liz Truss’s economic approach while she was in 10 Downing Street.

All this will make it difficult to establish relations between Trump and Starmer. But the most difficult aspect is one that even Theresa May and Boris Johnson (who were both the object of Trump’s affections at different times) have struggled with: its unpredictability. Those who worked at No. 10 while Trump was president say it wasn’t a question of whether he liked you or not—though that certainly helped when he wanted to be charming. The problem was that Trump would make spontaneous decisions with little or no warning, and it would be very difficult to get him to change course. Johnson was the luckiest of the two prime ministers at this, but even he found it difficult. As things stand, it is hard to imagine Starmer being much better able to bend Trump to his will. Instead, the relationship may be more about damage limitation than anything else.