• Trump’s proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances, a nonpartisan budget group warns.
• The group predicts that Trump’s program will lead to a 3-year increase in Social Security insolvencies.
• Harris’ proposals would have little impact on the timing of Social Security’s bankruptcy, the group said.

Americans risk losing all their benefits by the mid-2030s, and a nonpartisan budget group warns that if Trump is elected, his policies could lead to a funding crisis years early.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that studies the impact of fiscal policy, released a report Monday outlining the negative impacts it predicts a second Trump presidency would have on Social Security.

“We believe President Trump’s campaign proposals will dramatically worsen Social Security’s finances,” the CRFB report said.

In a recent report, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that Social Security’s main trust fund could run out in 2034, meaning Americans won’t receive their full benefits.

The Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees estimate the fund will run out a year later, in 2035.

But in its report, the CRFB estimates that if Trump wins a second term and enacts his current campaign proposals, these funds will become insolvent three years earlier than the CBO projects, in 2031. The CRFB says this will cause Americans to lose 33% of their income. Social Security benefits across the board by 2035 are a larger reduction than the current CBO forecast of 23%.

CRFB estimates Republican presidential candidate’s pledge to end taxation of Social Security benefits eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, introduce tariffsAnd increasing deportations will worsen social security cash shortages in the aggregate.

But that’s not all the damage Trump’s proposals could cause, according to CRFB.

In addition to speeding up insolvency deadlines and cutting Americans’ benefits, Trump’s program would increase Social Security’s 10-year cash deficit by $2.3 trillion through 2035 and increase its annual deficit by about 50% in 2035, CRFB predicted in its report.

For Social Security to restore 75 years of solvency under these conditions, current benefits would have to be cut by about a third or earnings would have to double.

Trump campaign national press secretary Caroline Leavitt disputed the CRFB report in a statement published by Business Insider.

“The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong over the years. President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security in his first term, and President Trump will continue to vigorously defend Social Security in his second term,” Leavitt said in his report. statement.

“By unlocking America’s energy supply, slashing job-killing regulations, and enacting tax and trade policies that promote economic growth, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for future generations. eliminating Social Security taxes for America’s deserving seniors,” Leavitt continued.

Meanwhile, the CRFB had a more optimistic outlook when considering Kamala Harris’ policy proposals.

CRFB said in its report that the Democratic presidential candidate’s campaign proposals “would have little impact on the solvency of the Social Security trust fund.” Because Harris’ policies would only affect insolvency timelines for a few weeks or months, the group did not produce a similar report for her, CRFB senior policy director Mark Goldwein said, according to the Washington Post.

Both Trump and Harris have said they will protect Social Security, but neither candidate has laid out specific plans to mitigate the expected $16,500-a-year benefit cut that a typical couple retiring shortly before bankruptcy could face, they said. in the CRFB report.

Harris’ campaign did not immediately respond to Business Insider’s request for comment.

Social Security’s promise of a poverty-free retirement no longer matches the reality many Americans face.

Business Insider previously spoke with more than 40 baby boomers and some Gen Xers who said they are struggling to achieve a comfortable retirement and Social Security isn’t doing enough to keep them afloat. Some retirees have even had their benefits unexpectedly reduced due to unclear regulations.